SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 4 20:16:01 UTC 2010

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 4 20:16:01 UTC 2010.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Sep 4 20:16:01 UTC 2010

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 4 20:16:01 UTC 2010.

SPC Sep 4, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH /WITH -22 C AT 500 MB/ WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
ROCKIES...EMERGING INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MON. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN MT/ERN WY SWWD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AT 00Z. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A LOW CENTER ACROSS WRN NEB SUN
AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SERN U.S.
HIGH...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA WITH A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL AS ALONG THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF COAST WITH ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

...SERN MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUN MORNING ACROSS SRN MT
NEAR A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY OVER SRN MT AND NRN WY...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THIS WILL FAVOR AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER NERN WY...SERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS
AS PEAK HEATING IS REACHED AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MERGE.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/2010

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SPC Sep 4, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MT...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE TROUGH FROM SRN ID INTO NRN
MT...WITH ANOTHER AXIS FROM NRN MT SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/

...WRN/CENTRAL MT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BC/WA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A
NARROW PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT...AND
MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  THESE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES. 
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IS WEAK INSTABILITY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
DEEP DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.  THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS S TX AND FL...WITHIN THE REMAINING TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME.

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SPC Sep 4, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CENTRAL MT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BC/WA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A
NARROW PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT...AND
MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  THESE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES. 
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IS WEAK INSTABILITY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
DEEP DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.  THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS S TX AND FL...WITHIN THE REMAINING TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/04/2010

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 041700Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL ID...NERN NV...

...S-CNTRL ID...NERN NV...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...SERN ID...SRN WY...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION /NJ INTO VA/...
MID-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE
SHOW AN AXIS OF RH VALUES AROUND 30-35 PERCENT RESIDING FROM NJ
S-SWWD ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA INTO CNTRL VA...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE/MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. PEAK WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
PERIOD OF LOWEST RH ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE NEAR 20 MPH OVER
VA...WITH 20-25 MPH OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCED OVER NJ...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...CAROLINAS AND NRN/CNTRL GA...
POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO GA TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR /PWAT VALUES AOB
0.60 INCHES PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE AND BNA 12Z RAOB/ LOCATED UPSTREAM
FROM THE REGION...MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT APPEAR PROBABLE /AS
INDICATED BY LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL OUTPUT/. HOWEVER...STRONGER
LOW/MID-LEVEL WLY/S WILL BE LOCATED N OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 MPH /WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH/. THEREFORE...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED.

...E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRLY/SWRN UT...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..GARNER.. 09/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH EARLY SUN...AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE JUST OFF THE
SWRN ORE COAST WILL PROGRESS INLAND REACHING THE NRN GREAT BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

...S-CNTRL ID...NERN NV...
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OFF THE SWRN ORE COAST AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW-END CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...AS RH VALUES BECOME
LOW /BETWEEN 6 AND 12 PERCENT/.

...SERN ID...SRN WY...
EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN S-CNTRL ID...SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS SERN ID INTO SWRN WY.
HOWEVER...ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK SHOULD HELP
MARGINALIZE THE OVERALL THREAT. ACROSS SERN WY...RECENT RAINFALL HAS
BEEN LACKING...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATE
/AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH/ AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA
DELINEATION ATTM.

...PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NC...
MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRI INTO EARLY
SAT. WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG OVER THE UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN WITH SRN EXTENT
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED. SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH N TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15
MPH S. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER NC/SRN
VA...WHERE RH VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S. PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER/MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH RH
VALUES LARGELY IN THE 30S. THE RELATIVELY GREATEST THREAT SHOULD
EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL VA WHERE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
PERSISTS.

...E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT...
ALTHOUGH THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE OFF THE SWRN ORE
COAST...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT AND SHOULD
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
LOCALIZED MARGINAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE
OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL
AREA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE DEPTH
OF VERTICAL MIXING WILL REMAIN LOWER. THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD
SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH...AS
RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES...

...MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK /100-120 KT AT 250 MB/ MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS /SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
AOA 25 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. STRONG POST FRONTAL SURFACE WIND SPEEDS /20-30 MPH/ ARE
ALSO INDICATED OVER S-CNTRL/SERN ID INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN UT AND
NERN NV...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES.

...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...
LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KT S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A HOT/STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR MASS SPREADS EWD
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. THOUGH A ZONE OF CRITICALLY
LOW RH SHOULD BE FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED WITH CRITICALLY STRONG WIND
SPEEDS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHERE A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP /WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE
LOW RH/STRONG WIND OVERLAP WILL BE LOCATED/. THEREFORE...WILL WAIT
TO ISSUE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...SRN CA DESERTS...
NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE DESERTS OF SRN CA AS
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LEADING TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OCCURRING IN
THE MIDST OF RH VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION /NJ INTO NRN-ERN VA/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY BRIEFLY DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 10 MPH...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

..GARNER.. 09/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0458 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
NWRN CONUS AND PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH
EARLY MON. MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A BELT OF 50 TO 70
MPH FLOW AT 500 MB CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY ON SUN
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

...MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN AZ...SRN/ERN UT...NRN/WRN CO AND
CNTRL/SRN WY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS LOCALLY REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF
SRN WY/NWRN CO. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY
AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/.

THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER NW INTO NERN NV/NWRN
UT/SERN ID. HERE...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH
RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS
AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL /AROUND
15 PERCENT/...THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDS WARRANT A CRITICAL
DELINEATION.

...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...
MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK
HEATING ON SUN. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
CONFINED E OF A DRYLINE MIXING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WHERE
RH VALUES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT.
HOWEVER...AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES INVOF NERN CO...A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE DRYLINE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TX/OX PANHANDLES DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
A HIGHLY LOCALIZED ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MODERATE...REACHING 15 MPH. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH
LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 061200Z - 121200Z

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY/D3...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SWD AND ARC ACROSS KS INTO WRN OK AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR INVOF THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WHICH MAY FAVOR LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
TEENS. FARTHER S...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INDICATED BY SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SRN KS...OK...AND THE TX
PANHANDLE /WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AOA 20 MPH/. HOWEVER...RH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT AN OUTLOOK AREA.

TOWARD MID WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE W COAST
AND THEN EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS /FOR STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES/
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY/D5 OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NV...AND THEN
WY SWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY/D6. THESE REGIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DURING FUTURE OUTLOOKS...AND MAY
REQUIRE CRITICAL AREAS AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

..GARNER.. 09/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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